prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Seattle 30 33.4, 32 Cleveland 13 11.5
85% 1 New England 33 35.8, 30 Tennessee 16 13.9
79% 6 Green Bay 30 29.6, 29 Oakland 20 20.9
65% 10 Minnesota 38 25.5, 13 Chicago 17 19.1
61% 8 Cincinnati 24 23.6, 20 San Francisco 14 18.2
61% 5 Kansas City 34 23.8, 16 Baltimore 14 20.6
60% 26 Washington 35 23.5, 19 Buffalo 25 21.4
60% 23 San Diego 30 24.4, 18 Miami 14 21.9
60% 21 St. Louis 31 21.4, 27 Tampa Bay 23 16.9
60% 9 Arizona 40 28.8, 15 Philadelphia 17 24.5
60% 7 Pittsburgh 34 24.7, 4 Denver 27 21.2
60% 3 Carolina 38 27.3, 14 New York Giants 35 23.0
55% 17 Atlanta 23 25.4, 31 Jacksonville 17 24.7
40% 25 Houston 16 21.4, 24 Indianapolis 10 26.3
40% 11 New York Jets 19 18.7, 12 Dallas 16 21.9
39% 22 Detroit 35 26.1, 28 New Orleans 27 28.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.87 11 1.34 1 1.27 2 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 10.3 1.26
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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