2015 Week 16 (24-28 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%   3 Kansas City             17 32.6,    32 Cleveland               13 13.0
 71%  10 Minnesota               49 28.1,    15 New York Giants         17 21.7
 62%  17 Detroit                 32 22.8,    18 San Francisco           17 17.9
 61%   7 Arizona                 38 27.7,     5 Green Bay                8 22.5
 60%  28 New Orleans             38 31.4,    31 Jacksonville            27 26.4
 60%  24 Buffalo                 16 22.9,    13 Dallas                   6 19.9
 60%   9 Denver                  20 24.2,     8 Cincinnati              17 21.1
 55%  12 Chicago                 26 23.0,    27 Tampa Bay               21 22.5

 49%  23 Houston                 34 21.1,    30 Tennessee                6 21.4
 44%  29 Oakland                 23 24.3,    16 San Diego               20 25.1
 40%  19 Baltimore               20 22.0,     6 Pittsburgh              17 27.1
 40%  14 Atlanta                 20 21.2,     4 Carolina                13 26.7
 39%  26 Washington              38 23.3,    21 Philadelphia            24 27.9
 39%  25 Indianapolis            18 21.4,    22 Miami                   12 25.7
 32%  11 New York Jets           26 20.0,     1 New England             20 27.4
 15%  20 St. Louis               23 10.3,     2 Seattle                 17 27.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.35   8 1.01   1 1.42   2 0.59   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   8  10.2 0.79

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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