2015 Postseason: Wild Card (9-10 Jan) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 60%   9 Green Bay               35 26.2,    21 Washington              18 23.0
 60%   7 Kansas City             30 22.7,    22 Houston                  0 18.5
 59%   1 Seattle                 10 21.5,    10 Minnesota                9 20.3

 40%   4 Pittsburgh              18 21.7,     5 Cincinnati              16 24.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 1.68   2 0.83   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):   4   3   2.4 1.25

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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