2016 Week 1 (8-9 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 77%   2 Seattle                 12 25.8,    18 Miami                   10 15.2
 69%  19 Philadelphia            29 28.6,    32 Cleveland               10 20.2
 66%   5 Kansas City             33 26.0,    16 San Diego               27 17.7
 64%  26 Houston                 23 22.7,    17 Chicago                 14 21.2
 64%  14 Baltimore               13 24.3,    24 Buffalo                  7 19.0
 63%  10 Minnesota               25 23.3,    29 Tennessee               16 20.4
 62%   4 Pittsburgh              38 24.8,    25 Washington              16 21.7
 61%  21 San Francisco           28 21.1,    23 Los Angeles              0 17.1
 61%   7 Green Bay               27 26.7,    31 Jacksonville            23 21.9
 60%   3 Denver                  21 24.0,     6 Carolina                20 20.5
 52%   8 Cincinnati              23 21.0,    12 New York Jets           22 20.8

 44%   1 New England             23 23.3,     9 Arizona                 21 24.0
 40%  30 Oakland                 35 23.1,    27 New Orleans             34 29.1
 38%  22 Detroit                 39 20.6,    15 Indianapolis            35 25.7
 38%  20 New York Giants         20 21.7,    13 Dallas                  19 24.0
 29%  28 Tampa Bay               31 18.8,    11 Atlanta                 24 25.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.93  12 1.19   2 0.68   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11  10.1 1.09

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net