prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 2 New England 31 26.0, 17 Miami 24 11.5
64% 18 Arizona 40 26.0, 15 Tampa Bay 7 22.7
64% 8 Minnesota 17 21.9, 7 Green Bay 14 19.1
63% 10 Philadelphia 29 21.5, 23 Chicago 14 18.9
63% 4 Denver 34 39.2, 27 Indianapolis 20 23.5
62% 11 New York Giants 16 39.0, 29 New Orleans 13 25.9
61% 20 San Diego 38 34.8, 28 Jacksonville 14 25.9
61% 1 Pittsburgh 24 21.8, 6 Cincinnati 16 14.0
60% 12 Baltimore 25 22.9, 31 Cleveland 20 15.9
49% 24 Dallas 27 30.2, 30 Washington 23 30.5
48% 13 Carolina 46 14.8, 3 San Francisco 27 15.3
47% 16 Houston 19 20.0, 9 Kansas City 12 20.5
39% 32 Los Angeles 9 15.8, 5 Seattle 3 27.8
39% 25 Atlanta 35 24.5, 19 Oakland 28 33.4
37% 22 New York Jets 37 20.9, 21 Buffalo 31 23.9
36% 26 Tennessee 16 19.3, 14 Detroit 15 32.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 12 1.07 1 1.43 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.7 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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