prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 3 Denver 27 33.2, 30 Tampa Bay 7 20.4
74% 4 Minnesota 24 24.3, 16 New York Giants 10 13.2
63% 8 Pittsburgh 43 21.6, 6 Kansas City 14 19.1
62% 11 Cincinnati 22 25.0, 18 Miami 7 18.8
61% 28 Washington 31 32.8, 32 Cleveland 20 25.6
61% 19 Houston 27 22.3, 25 Tennessee 20 14.0
61% 5 Seattle 27 21.7, 21 New York Jets 17 18.5
51% 17 Atlanta 48 27.7, 10 Carolina 33 27.5
48% 9 Dallas 24 20.4, 22 San Francisco 17 20.7
40% 29 Chicago 17 27.4, 23 Detroit 14 28.9
38% 20 Los Angeles 17 16.8, 13 Arizona 13 25.7
37% 31 Jacksonville 30 29.0, 24 Indianapolis 27 31.1
24% 27 New Orleans 35 24.0, 14 San Diego 34 34.3
23% 26 Oakland 28 16.4, 12 Baltimore 27 25.6
18% 15 Buffalo 16 13.0, 1 New England 0 27.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.97 8 1.01 4 0.66 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 9.8 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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