2016 Week 8 (27-31 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 74%   2 Denver                  27 27.8,    14 San Diego               19 18.6
 71%  25 Tennessee               36 26.3,    30 Jacksonville            22 18.5
 69%  13 Cincinnati              27 26.2,    20 Washington              27 18.5
 61%  23 Houston                 20 24.0,    21 Detroit                 13 21.8
 61%   6 Dallas                  29 21.6,     4 Philadelphia            23 18.9
 60%  19 New York Jets           31 26.5,    32 Cleveland               28 22.9
 60%  12 Atlanta                 33 28.5,    11 Green Bay               32 24.1
 60%   1 New England             41 22.9,     9 Buffalo                 25 19.3

 52%  10 Kansas City             30 24.7,    22 Indianapolis            14 24.5
 45%  16 Carolina                30 24.0,     7 Arizona                 20 24.8
 40%  24 New Orleans             25 23.0,     3 Seattle                 20 27.8
 38%  26 Oakland                 30 23.9,    28 Tampa Bay               24 25.4
 37%  29 Chicago                 20 15.9,     5 Minnesota               10 23.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.20   8 0.81   2 1.38   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  13   8   8.1 0.99

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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