2016 Week 10 (10-14 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 85%  17 Baltimore               28 31.5,    32 Cleveland                7 17.6
 85%   8 Arizona                 23 34.4,    31 San Francisco           20 15.7
 61%  29 Tampa Bay               36 24.5,    28 Chicago                 10 22.1
 61%  14 New York Giants         21 23.3,    13 Cincinnati              20 21.3
 61%   5 Philadelphia            24 27.6,    10 Atlanta                 15 23.2
 59%   3 Denver                  25 26.1,    18 New Orleans             23 25.0

 47%  24 Houston                 24 21.4,    30 Jacksonville            21 21.8
 39%   7 Kansas City             20 20.5,    12 Carolina                17 22.8
 39%   2 Dallas                  35 20.7,     9 Pittsburgh              30 22.6
 38%  27 Tennessee               47 25.2,    15 Green Bay               25 26.6
 38%  26 Los Angeles              9 17.6,    23 New York Jets            6 22.6
 38%  20 Washington              26 19.3,     6 Minnesota               20 21.0
 29%  19 Miami                   31 21.3,    16 San Diego               24 28.0
 27%   4 Seattle                 31 15.9,     1 New England             24 25.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.89   8 0.61   2 0.00   2 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   6   9.2 0.65

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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