prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 8 Cincinnati 23 29.2, 32 Cleveland 10 18.7
83% 1 New England 30 28.5, 11 Baltimore 23 15.2
70% 19 Detroit 20 26.6, 29 Chicago 17 17.3
65% 6 Kansas City 21 26.6, 23 Oakland 13 19.2
62% 7 Minnesota 25 24.9, 30 Jacksonville 16 18.6
61% 10 Atlanta 42 25.3, 27 Los Angeles 14 20.8
60% 18 Carolina 28 28.8, 20 San Diego 16 25.6
57% 24 Tampa Bay 16 26.4, 15 New Orleans 11 25.7
53% 28 New York Jets 23 23.7, 31 San Francisco 17 23.4
47% 5 Pittsburgh 27 23.5, 14 Buffalo 20 23.9
46% 22 Miami 26 22.4, 12 Arizona 23 22.9
40% 25 Tennessee 13 21.3, 4 Denver 10 24.7
40% 17 Green Bay 38 22.0, 2 Seattle 10 26.0
40% 13 New York Giants 10 21.0, 3 Dallas 7 23.5
38% 16 Washington 27 21.7, 9 Philadelphia 22 26.6
29% 26 Houston 22 19.3, 21 Indianapolis 17 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 8 1.00 1 0.00 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.2 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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