2016 Week 15 (15-19 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 85%  15 Buffalo                 33 34.6,    32 Cleveland               13 17.7
 85%   3 Dallas                  26 27.3,    24 Tampa Bay               20 15.9
 85%   2 Seattle                 24 27.9,    28 Los Angeles              3 11.1
 79%   8 Atlanta                 41 36.0,    31 San Francisco           13 19.0
 64%  26 Houston                 21 24.4,    30 Jacksonville            20 18.0
 62%  13 New York Giants         17 23.4,    18 Detroit                  6 19.0
 61%   1 New England             16 23.8,     4 Denver                   3 22.5
 60%  14 Green Bay               30 26.6,    29 Chicago                 27 22.4
 60%  10 Baltimore               27 23.2,    12 Philadelphia            26 19.3
 50%  22 Miami                   34 20.5,    27 New York Jets           13 20.5

 50%   5 Pittsburgh              24 20.7,     9 Cincinnati              20 20.7
 40%  25 Oakland                 19 26.2,    20 San Diego               16 29.6
 40%  17 Carolina                26 23.2,    16 Washington              15 26.7
 34%  21 New Orleans             48 24.1,    11 Arizona                 41 30.5
 31%  23 Indianapolis            34 19.7,     7 Minnesota                6 27.2
 20%  19 Tennessee               19 17.4,     6 Kansas City             17 25.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.25   8 0.80   2 0.63   3 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10  10.8 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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