prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 41 32.1, 27 New York Jets 3 12.2
81% 3 Dallas 42 27.3, 21 Detroit 21 17.4
66% 4 Pittsburgh 31 24.7, 8 Baltimore 27 17.7
65% 20 New Orleans 31 29.6, 25 Tampa Bay 24 23.1
62% 11 Green Bay 38 26.9, 12 Minnesota 25 21.3
61% 24 Oakland 33 27.4, 14 Indianapolis 25 25.8
61% 22 Washington 41 24.9, 29 Chicago 21 22.3
60% 17 Philadelphia 24 23.6, 10 New York Giants 19 20.5
60% 6 Kansas City 33 21.1, 5 Denver 10 18.2
54% 7 Atlanta 33 26.2, 16 Carolina 16 25.5
40% 30 Jacksonville 38 21.6, 19 Tennessee 17 24.7
40% 26 Houston 12 18.9, 9 Cincinnati 10 21.4
39% 18 Miami 34 20.0, 15 Buffalo 31 25.6
34% 31 San Francisco 22 18.9, 28 Los Angeles 21 26.4
24% 13 Arizona 34 17.9, 2 Seattle 31 26.8
22% 32 Cleveland 20 22.4, 23 San Diego 17 31.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.88 10 1.12 2 0.00 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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