prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 4 Pittsburgh 27 33.7, 32 Cleveland 24 14.1
85% 15 Indianapolis 24 31.2, 30 Jacksonville 20 18.6
81% 1 New England 35 26.8, 19 Miami 14 18.8
73% 14 Minnesota 38 27.3, 29 Chicago 10 16.7
70% 2 Seattle 25 29.7, 31 San Francisco 23 17.8
67% 5 Denver 24 27.2, 24 Oakland 6 19.3
65% 21 Tennessee 24 24.7, 26 Houston 17 18.2
64% 7 Atlanta 38 33.8, 20 New Orleans 32 26.3
61% 25 Tampa Bay 17 23.3, 17 Carolina 16 21.9
60% 12 Arizona 44 24.2, 28 Los Angeles 6 20.2
60% 8 Cincinnati 27 21.8, 9 Baltimore 10 18.7
55% 6 Kansas City 37 22.6, 23 San Diego 27 22.1
53% 11 Green Bay 31 25.5, 22 Detroit 24 25.2
40% 27 New York Jets 30 21.1, 16 Buffalo 10 24.2
40% 13 Philadelphia 27 23.0, 3 Dallas 13 25.4
40% 10 New York Giants 19 20.8, 18 Washington 10 23.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.39 7 1.12 1 1.36 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 10.6 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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