prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 13 Seattle 46 32.4, 31 Indianapolis 18 19.5
73% 17 Arizona 18 33.0, 32 San Francisco 15 17.3
72% 9 Green Bay 35 29.6, 28 Chicago 14 17.0
67% 2 Denver 16 28.3, 19 Oakland 10 17.7
67% 1 Kansas City 29 26.3, 14 Washington 20 15.0
62% 22 Tampa Bay 25 24.8, 25 New York Giants 23 19.2
61% 4 Pittsburgh 26 23.0, 24 Baltimore 9 19.2
56% 16 Philadelphia 26 26.8, 26 Los Angeles Chargers 24 25.6
49% 23 Cincinnati 31 20.6, 30 Cleveland 7 20.7
47% 27 Houston 57 23.5, 18 Tennessee 14 24.0
39% 29 New York Jets 23 19.2, 15 Jacksonville 20 23.0
39% 20 New Orleans 20 23.4, 21 Miami 0 25.5
39% 7 Detroit 14 18.6, 12 Minnesota 7 21.6
38% 10 Los Angeles Rams 35 19.2, 11 Dallas 30 24.8
37% 8 Buffalo 23 18.4, 5 Atlanta 17 25.3
34% 6 Carolina 33 17.7, 3 New England 30 26.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.63 10 0.63 3 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.1 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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