prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 32 Indianapolis 26 30.5, 30 San Francisco 23 26.3
61% 24 Miami 16 25.9, 25 Tennessee 10 22.9
61% 14 Minnesota 20 22.3, 29 Chicago 17 19.9
61% 13 Philadelphia 34 25.8, 18 Arizona 7 20.2
61% 7 New England 19 30.8, 21 Tampa Bay 14 26.3
61% 2 Kansas City 42 22.7, 20 Houston 34 18.8
49% 28 New York Jets 17 21.7, 31 Cleveland 14 21.8
40% 16 Cincinnati 20 16.5, 4 Buffalo 16 18.1
40% 9 Green Bay 35 26.3, 17 Dallas 31 27.7
39% 27 Baltimore 30 19.3, 22 Oakland 17 25.8
39% 23 Los Angeles Chargers 27 23.3, 26 New York Giants 22 25.1
39% 6 Seattle 16 19.6, 12 Los Angeles Rams 10 21.8
39% 5 Carolina 27 16.1, 11 Detroit 24 19.4
33% 19 Jacksonville 30 15.6, 3 Pittsburgh 9 24.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 12 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 8.5 0.71
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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