prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 17 Washington 26 28.7, 30 San Francisco 24 17.6
67% 24 Houston 33 30.6, 32 Cleveland 17 18.9
66% 9 New Orleans 52 26.2, 16 Detroit 38 19.7
64% 22 Tennessee 36 32.8, 31 Indianapolis 22 23.4
62% 3 New England 24 28.5, 23 New York Jets 17 21.8
61% 25 Arizona 38 22.3, 20 Tampa Bay 33 19.0
51% 14 Minnesota 23 23.2, 8 Green Bay 10 23.0
39% 21 Los Angeles Chargers 17 24.2, 27 Oakland 16 26.4
39% 5 Philadelphia 28 19.4, 7 Carolina 23 21.3
38% 15 Los Angeles Rams 27 19.0, 12 Jacksonville 17 24.8
36% 11 Pittsburgh 19 17.7, 2 Kansas City 13 26.6
35% 29 Chicago 27 16.4, 18 Baltimore 24 24.6
23% 26 Miami 20 17.0, 10 Atlanta 17 26.5
16% 28 New York Giants 23 14.9, 1 Denver 10 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.94 10 0.79 2 0.67 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.2 0.76
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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