prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 20 Detroit 38 32.5, 32 Cleveland 24 17.0
75% 8 Carolina 45 23.0, 24 Miami 21 14.2
66% 3 Los Angeles Rams 33 32.5, 27 Houston 7 20.7
63% 4 Pittsburgh 20 27.2, 30 Indianapolis 17 19.8
63% 1 New England 41 27.7, 19 Denver 16 22.9
62% 12 Jacksonville 20 23.8, 17 Los Angeles Chargers 17 17.4
61% 26 Tampa Bay 15 23.4, 21 New York Jets 10 20.6
61% 22 Tennessee 24 21.6, 16 Cincinnati 20 19.4
61% 5 Seattle 22 23.7, 25 Arizona 16 20.8
59% 15 Green Bay 23 23.9, 23 Chicago 16 22.7
56% 13 Atlanta 27 24.8, 9 Dallas 7 24.0
39% 31 San Francisco 31 22.6, 28 New York Giants 21 24.7
39% 11 Minnesota 38 20.8, 18 Washington 30 22.2
39% 7 New Orleans 47 22.6, 10 Buffalo 10 24.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.73 10 1.13 1 1.34 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 8.9 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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