prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 3 New Orleans 31 31.7, 24 New York Jets 19 17.8
82% 6 Baltimore 27 28.4, 32 Cleveland 10 16.2
73% 13 Jacksonville 45 29.8, 31 Houston 7 18.8
70% 7 Minnesota 34 26.1, 20 Cincinnati 7 15.1
66% 10 Carolina 31 28.3, 16 Green Bay 24 21.1
64% 2 Philadelphia 34 27.7, 26 New York Giants 29 19.2
63% 23 Washington 20 26.1, 25 Arizona 15 21.5
62% 19 Buffalo 24 23.5, 22 Miami 16 19.5
60% 27 Detroit 20 24.4, 15 Chicago 10 20.9
60% 1 New England 27 25.2, 5 Pittsburgh 24 21.7
59% 12 Kansas City 30 21.8, 4 Los Angeles Chargers 13 20.6
56% 14 Dallas 20 24.1, 28 Oakland 17 23.4
53% 11 Atlanta 24 22.4, 18 Tampa Bay 21 22.0
48% 21 Denver 25 24.1, 29 Indianapolis 13 24.5
47% 30 San Francisco 25 21.2, 17 Tennessee 23 21.5
40% 9 Los Angeles Rams 42 21.7, 8 Seattle 7 25.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.10 7 1.38 2 1.39 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 10.2 1.28
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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