prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 5 New Orleans 31 29.8, 9 Carolina 26 22.7
64% 15 Jacksonville 10 25.0, 21 Buffalo 3 18.8
38% 11 Atlanta 26 20.8, 12 Los Angeles Rams 13 26.1
16% 22 Tennessee 22 16.9, 8 Kansas City 21 26.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 2 0.80 1 1.42 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.8 0.71
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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