prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
64% 13 Denver 20 38.2, 30 Oakland 19 20.4
63% 15 Dallas 20 25.2, 24 New York Giants 13 16.7
62% 7 Los Angeles Rams 34 25.9, 28 Arizona 0 9.8
61% 26 New Orleans 21 37.0, 27 Cleveland 18 30.1
61% 23 San Francisco 30 42.7, 32 Detroit 27 27.8
61% 22 Los Angeles Chargers 31 42.8, 31 Buffalo 20 34.8
61% 18 Green Bay 29 24.5, 12 Minnesota 29 21.5
61% 5 Kansas City 42 24.7, 16 Pittsburgh 37 21.3
60% 10 Tampa Bay 27 23.6, 4 Philadelphia 21 20.8
59% 25 Tennessee 20 26.0, 21 Houston 17 24.5
59% 9 Jacksonville 31 21.8, 6 New England 20 19.6
52% 20 Chicago 24 27.8, 19 Seattle 17 27.3
52% 14 Atlanta 31 16.8, 8 Carolina 24 16.3
39% 17 Miami 20 8.7, 2 New York Jets 12 21.2
39% 11 Cincinnati 34 6.8, 1 Baltimore 23 16.6
36% 29 Indianapolis 21 12.7, 3 Washington 9 30.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.80 12 1.08 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 9.6 1.24
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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