2018 Week 3 (20-24 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 77%  18 Miami                   28 32.9,    30 Oakland                 20 21.1
 66%   3 Kansas City             38 34.2,    26 San Francisco           27 20.4
 62%   2 Baltimore               27 26.0,    14 Denver                  14 15.7
 61%  20 Washington              31 24.9,    22 Green Bay               17 22.1
 61%  17 Seattle                 24 23.7,    13 Dallas                  13 19.7
 61%  15 Chicago                 16 23.3,    29 Arizona                 14 18.1
 61%  11 Philadelphia            20 26.8,    19 Indianapolis            16 19.5
 61%  10 Carolina                31 24.0,    16 Cincinnati              21 19.3
 61%   1 Los Angeles Rams        35 18.5,     8 Los Angeles Chargers    23 12.4

 39%  28 Cleveland               21 13.5,     7 New York Jets           17 20.2
 39%  23 New York Giants         27 18.8,    25 Houston                 22 24.0
 39%  21 New Orleans             43 23.4,     9 Atlanta                 37 28.9
 37%  31 Detroit                 26 28.5,     4 New England             10 40.1
 37%  24 Pittsburgh              30 23.9,    12 Tampa Bay               27 32.4
 19%  27 Tennessee                9 14.8,     5 Jacksonville             6 29.3
 17%  32 Buffalo                 27 16.8,     6 Minnesota                6 37.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                0 0.00  13 1.00   1 1.30   2 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9  10.4 0.86

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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