2018 Week 4 (27 Sep - 1 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 65%   2 Los Angeles Rams        38 23.5,    26 Minnesota               31 11.8
 62%  21 Los Angeles Chargers    29 33.4,    27 San Francisco           27 25.5
 62%  13 Dallas                  26 26.9,    29 Detroit                 24 18.4
 62%   9 Seattle                 20 27.6,    31 Arizona                 17 21.4
 62%   3 Jacksonville            31 22.1,    10 New York Jets           12 15.6
 61%  24 Green Bay               22 27.4,    25 Buffalo                  0 21.7
 61%  11 New England             38 25.4,    18 Miami                    7 21.0
 61%   6 Chicago                 48 22.0,    15 Tampa Bay               10 17.5
 61%   4 Kansas City             27 28.4,    22 Denver                  23 25.5
 61%   1 Baltimore               26 26.5,    12 Pittsburgh              14 23.7
 56%  32 Oakland                 45 24.8,    30 Cleveland               42 24.1

 42%  23 Tennessee               26 20.5,     5 Philadelphia            23 22.3
 42%  20 New Orleans             33 25.8,    14 New York Giants         18 27.1
 39%  19 Cincinnati              37 20.7,     7 Atlanta                 36 26.3
 36%  28 Houston                 37 19.6,    16 Indianapolis            34 27.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.58  12 1.35   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15  11   9.1 1.20

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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