prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 2 Los Angeles Rams 38 23.5, 26 Minnesota 31 11.8
62% 21 Los Angeles Chargers 29 33.4, 27 San Francisco 27 25.5
62% 13 Dallas 26 26.9, 29 Detroit 24 18.4
62% 9 Seattle 20 27.6, 31 Arizona 17 21.4
62% 3 Jacksonville 31 22.1, 10 New York Jets 12 15.6
61% 24 Green Bay 22 27.4, 25 Buffalo 0 21.7
61% 11 New England 38 25.4, 18 Miami 7 21.0
61% 6 Chicago 48 22.0, 15 Tampa Bay 10 17.5
61% 4 Kansas City 27 28.4, 22 Denver 23 25.5
61% 1 Baltimore 26 26.5, 12 Pittsburgh 14 23.7
56% 32 Oakland 45 24.8, 30 Cleveland 42 24.1
42% 23 Tennessee 26 20.5, 5 Philadelphia 23 22.3
42% 20 New Orleans 33 25.8, 14 New York Giants 18 27.1
39% 19 Cincinnati 37 20.7, 7 Atlanta 36 26.3
36% 28 Houston 37 19.6, 16 Indianapolis 34 27.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.58 12 1.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 9.1 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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