prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 13 Los Angeles Chargers 26 37.4, 32 Oakland 10 23.6
74% 11 Carolina 33 24.8, 22 New York Giants 31 17.4
69% 9 New Orleans 43 28.6, 14 Washington 19 20.7
63% 15 Cincinnati 27 26.5, 21 Miami 17 20.9
62% 19 New York Jets 34 26.3, 23 Denver 16 21.5
62% 4 New England 38 26.8, 20 Indianapolis 24 19.4
61% 17 Pittsburgh 41 30.2, 18 Atlanta 17 26.2
61% 5 Kansas City 30 26.2, 6 Jacksonville 14 20.7
46% 3 Los Angeles Rams 33 21.4, 7 Seattle 31 22.4
44% 24 Buffalo 13 19.4, 16 Tennessee 12 20.3
42% 29 Houston 19 22.6, 12 Dallas 16 23.6
39% 28 Detroit 31 24.3, 10 Green Bay 23 26.2
34% 31 Arizona 28 20.5, 26 San Francisco 18 28.5
32% 27 Minnesota 23 19.3, 8 Philadelphia 21 29.6
24% 30 Cleveland 12 15.5, 1 Baltimore 9 27.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 9 1.05 2 0.66 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 9.7 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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