2018 Week 5 (4-8 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 80%  13 Los Angeles Chargers    26 37.4,    32 Oakland                 10 23.6
 74%  11 Carolina                33 24.8,    22 New York Giants         31 17.4
 69%   9 New Orleans             43 28.6,    14 Washington              19 20.7
 63%  15 Cincinnati              27 26.5,    21 Miami                   17 20.9
 62%  19 New York Jets           34 26.3,    23 Denver                  16 21.5
 62%   4 New England             38 26.8,    20 Indianapolis            24 19.4
 61%  17 Pittsburgh              41 30.2,    18 Atlanta                 17 26.2
 61%   5 Kansas City             30 26.2,     6 Jacksonville            14 20.7

 46%   3 Los Angeles Rams        33 21.4,     7 Seattle                 31 22.4
 44%  24 Buffalo                 13 19.4,    16 Tennessee               12 20.3
 42%  29 Houston                 19 22.6,    12 Dallas                  16 23.6
 39%  28 Detroit                 31 24.3,    10 Green Bay               23 26.2
 34%  31 Arizona                 28 20.5,    26 San Francisco           18 28.5
 32%  27 Minnesota               23 19.3,     8 Philadelphia            21 29.6
 24%  30 Cleveland               12 15.5,     1 Baltimore                9 27.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.00   9 1.05   2 0.66   1 1.25   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15   8   9.7 0.83

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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