2018 Week 6 (11-15 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 78%  14 Green Bay               33 30.2,    30 San Francisco           30 20.8
 66%  21 Minnesota               27 26.6,    29 Arizona                 17 19.0
 63%  27 Houston                 20 23.8,    24 Buffalo                 13 19.2
 63%  15 Seattle                 27 29.8,    32 Oakland                  3 23.8
 62%  12 Los Angeles Chargers    38 27.6,    31 Cleveland               14 22.4
 61%  17 New York Jets           42 25.1,    18 Indianapolis            34 20.5
 60%  23 Atlanta                 34 32.2,    28 Tampa Bay               29 27.9
 60%   5 Los Angeles Rams        23 28.0,    25 Denver                  20 22.8
 60%   2 Baltimore               21 21.0,    13 Tennessee                0 17.8
 58%  16 Dallas                  40 19.8,     9 Jacksonville             7 18.5
 57%  10 Philadelphia            34 22.7,    20 New York Giants         13 21.7
 55%   4 New England             43 26.5,     3 Kansas City             40 25.7

 48%   7 Pittsburgh              28 26.6,    11 Cincinnati              21 27.0
 40%  19 Washington              23 21.4,     8 Carolina                17 22.8
 38%  22 Miami                   31 17.5,     1 Chicago                 28 22.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.35  10 1.30   1 1.27   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15  12   9.2 1.31

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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