prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 8 Pittsburgh 33 33.2, 30 Cleveland 18 17.2
69% 2 Kansas City 30 32.7, 14 Denver 23 21.1
67% 12 Chicago 24 28.0, 23 New York Jets 10 20.0
66% 4 New England 25 27.3, 27 Buffalo 6 19.5
64% 22 Houston 42 26.5, 26 Miami 23 20.9
64% 7 Los Angeles Rams 29 28.8, 15 Green Bay 27 19.8
63% 16 Indianapolis 42 28.9, 32 Oakland 28 22.8
60% 20 Cincinnati 37 30.8, 28 Tampa Bay 34 25.3
60% 3 Seattle 28 24.6, 25 Detroit 14 21.4
57% 9 Philadelphia 24 21.9, 21 Jacksonville 18 20.9
53% 31 Arizona 18 26.3, 29 San Francisco 15 25.9
53% 6 New Orleans 30 27.6, 13 Minnesota 20 27.1
45% 10 Carolina 36 19.7, 1 Baltimore 21 20.4
40% 18 Washington 20 20.8, 19 New York Giants 13 22.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.38 9 1.40 0 0.00 1 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 12 8.8 1.37
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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