prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 6 Baltimore 24 30.7, 29 Cincinnati 21 17.9
72% 1 New Orleans 48 31.4, 10 Philadelphia 7 21.5
68% 8 Seattle 27 26.3, 15 Green Bay 24 19.4
64% 7 Chicago 25 26.4, 14 Minnesota 20 19.6
63% 2 Pittsburgh 20 28.5, 22 Jacksonville 16 21.3
62% 20 New York Giants 38 27.5, 28 Tampa Bay 35 21.8
60% 16 Indianapolis 38 24.6, 11 Tennessee 10 21.0
55% 9 Dallas 22 23.5, 21 Atlanta 19 22.9
50% 12 Los Angeles Rams 54 28.3, 3 Kansas City 51 28.4
40% 24 Detroit 20 25.7, 13 Carolina 19 27.9
40% 19 Houston 23 20.0, 18 Washington 21 22.4
31% 32 Oakland 23 18.8, 31 Arizona 21 27.3
24% 17 Denver 23 19.3, 5 Los Angeles Chargers 22 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.95 8 0.99 2 0.68 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.4 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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