prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 New England 38 33.4, 27 New York Jets 3 18.9
84% 4 Seattle 27 31.9, 31 Arizona 24 11.5
84% 3 Baltimore 26 28.1, 28 Cleveland 24 13.5
80% 12 Kansas City 35 38.3, 32 Oakland 3 19.2
79% 5 Pittsburgh 16 33.0, 29 Cincinnati 13 18.8
69% 14 Los Angeles Rams 48 31.3, 24 San Francisco 32 20.1
65% 17 Houston 20 25.8, 22 Jacksonville 3 18.7
62% 25 Buffalo 42 22.6, 30 Miami 17 18.6
60% 10 Philadelphia 24 23.4, 21 Washington 0 21.2
60% 6 Los Angeles Chargers 23 23.5, 15 Denver 9 22.2
54% 8 Dallas 36 21.5, 20 New York Giants 35 21.1
43% 18 Atlanta 34 25.1, 26 Tampa Bay 32 25.9
40% 13 Indianapolis 33 20.4, 9 Tennessee 17 22.9
40% 7 Chicago 24 19.0, 11 Minnesota 10 21.7
20% 19 Carolina 33 19.4, 1 New Orleans 14 35.3
19% 23 Detroit 31 20.8, 16 Green Bay 0 29.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.17 6 1.06 3 0.84 4 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 11.2 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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