2018 Week 1 (6-10 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 82%   5 Baltimore               47 24.8,    19 Buffalo                  3 16.8
 79%   1 New England             27 32.3,    31 Houston                 20 17.4
 77%   8 Minnesota               24 26.7,    29 San Francisco           16 17.2
 65%   2 Philadelphia            18 25.7,    11 Atlanta                 12 19.0
 63%  10 Carolina                16 23.8,    12 Dallas                   8 19.7
 62%  23 Miami                   27 22.9,    21 Tennessee               20 19.6
 62%  18 Green Bay               24 24.6,    17 Chicago                 23 19.5
 53%  15 Denver                  27 22.6,     6 Seattle                 24 22.3

 38%  22 Cincinnati              34 19.8,    25 Indianapolis            23 23.8
 38%  16 Jacksonville            20 20.2,    14 New York Giants         15 21.9
 37%  30 Los Angeles Rams        33 18.4,    28 Oakland                 13 23.3
 36%  27 New York Jets           48 19.7,    26 Detroit                 17 25.0
 36%   9 Kansas City             38 18.6,     4 Los Angeles Chargers    28 23.3
 35%  32 Cleveland               21 18.2,     3 Pittsburgh              21 26.9
 35%  20 Washington              24 19.7,    13 Arizona                  6 24.6
 31%  24 Tampa Bay               48 19.9,     7 New Orleans             40 29.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 1.89  12 0.52   2 1.28   1 1.22   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   8  10.6 0.76

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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