prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 1 New Orleans 20 31.3, 8 Philadelphia 14 20.9
61% 2 New England 41 26.5, 5 Los Angeles Chargers 28 21.6
60% 14 Los Angeles Rams 30 26.9, 9 Dallas 22 21.4
60% 11 Kansas City 31 32.8, 10 Indianapolis 13 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 1.65 1 1.42 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 4 2.5 1.59
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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