prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 6 San Francisco 31 27.1, 26 Cleveland 3 14.1
84% 1 New England 33 31.2, 27 Washington 7 11.4
83% 17 Philadelphia 31 33.9, 31 New York Jets 6 17.7
68% 5 New Orleans 31 34.3, 22 Tampa Bay 24 23.2
64% 18 Houston 53 26.5, 23 Atlanta 32 19.7
63% 13 Carolina 34 24.4, 21 Jacksonville 27 17.4
61% 10 Seattle 30 27.5, 15 Los Angeles Rams 29 22.2
61% 9 Minnesota 28 24.5, 25 New York Giants 10 20.8
48% 7 Baltimore 26 24.6, 14 Pittsburgh 23 24.9
39% 30 Arizona 26 23.7, 29 Cincinnati 23 28.2
37% 28 Oakland 24 14.7, 4 Chicago 21 22.5
36% 20 Indianapolis 19 24.3, 8 Kansas City 13 35.7
36% 16 Green Bay 34 14.5, 2 Dallas 24 23.6
35% 12 Buffalo 14 10.7, 3 Tennessee 7 19.1
27% 24 Denver 20 17.9, 11 Los Angeles Chargers 13 27.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 10 0.79 1 0.00 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 10.1 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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