prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 12 Green Bay 42 31.2, 24 Oakland 24 19.3
84% 1 New England 33 33.3, 31 New York Jets 0 11.2
76% 10 Buffalo 31 29.1, 32 Miami 21 10.3
64% 2 San Francisco 9 25.7, 27 Washington 0 15.5
60% 22 Jacksonville 27 24.7, 30 Cincinnati 17 22.9
60% 20 Los Angeles Rams 37 31.3, 25 Atlanta 10 28.4
60% 18 Indianapolis 30 24.9, 15 Houston 23 22.6
60% 11 Dallas 37 23.2, 16 Philadelphia 10 20.4
60% 9 Tennessee 23 19.3, 17 Los Angeles Chargers 20 16.0
60% 4 Minnesota 42 21.0, 21 Detroit 30 19.0
52% 3 New Orleans 36 20.6, 8 Chicago 25 20.2
51% 14 Kansas City 30 24.6, 19 Denver 6 24.4
40% 5 Baltimore 30 22.4, 6 Seattle 16 25.9
38% 29 Arizona 27 24.0, 26 New York Giants 21 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.93 9 1.28 1 1.31 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 12 9.0 1.34
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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