prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 17 Denver 24 25.2, 26 Cleveland 19 15.6
66% 7 Dallas 37 26.7, 29 New York Giants 18 20.7
65% 9 Seattle 40 32.5, 23 Tampa Bay 34 23.2
65% 8 Pittsburgh 26 25.5, 16 Indianapolis 24 20.1
64% 20 Buffalo 24 21.8, 24 Washington 9 13.7
64% 2 San Francisco 28 26.0, 28 Arizona 25 15.7
63% 11 Philadelphia 22 24.2, 14 Chicago 14 19.5
60% 19 Carolina 30 22.8, 13 Tennessee 20 20.4
60% 15 Kansas City 26 25.1, 5 Minnesota 23 22.8
54% 10 Los Angeles Chargers 26 23.4, 6 Green Bay 11 23.0
50% 32 Miami 26 23.6, 31 New York Jets 18 23.6
47% 25 Oakland 31 25.4, 22 Detroit 24 25.8
45% 18 Houston 26 21.9, 21 Jacksonville 3 22.7
39% 4 Baltimore 37 19.6, 1 New England 20 23.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.47 10 1.41 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.5 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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