prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 San Francisco 36 30.8, 28 Arizona 26 13.4
76% 4 Minnesota 27 24.7, 17 Denver 23 14.1
75% 2 Baltimore 41 29.3, 16 Houston 7 18.2
70% 1 New England 17 26.7, 9 Philadelphia 10 20.1
67% 18 Indianapolis 33 24.5, 21 Jacksonville 13 17.6
65% 26 Oakland 17 30.5, 32 Cincinnati 10 22.6
64% 12 Los Angeles Rams 17 23.4, 15 Chicago 7 17.2
62% 5 New Orleans 34 30.8, 23 Tampa Bay 17 25.7
60% 20 Buffalo 37 20.7, 31 Miami 20 17.6
59% 8 Dallas 35 23.3, 22 Detroit 27 22.0
40% 30 New York Jets 34 18.7, 24 Washington 17 22.4
40% 13 Kansas City 24 23.2, 7 Los Angeles Chargers 17 26.0
35% 25 Atlanta 29 23.6, 19 Carolina 3 31.9
26% 27 Cleveland 21 18.9, 6 Pittsburgh 7 26.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 8 0.99 4 1.02 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.4 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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