prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 New England 13 28.0, 9 Dallas 9 15.4
83% 15 Chicago 19 28.4, 30 New York Giants 14 17.5
80% 4 New Orleans 34 30.3, 20 Carolina 31 19.7
69% 6 Pittsburgh 16 28.4, 32 Cincinnati 10 18.9
66% 14 Tennessee 42 22.5, 21 Jacksonville 20 15.5
64% 3 San Francisco 37 26.8, 10 Green Bay 8 20.4
61% 26 Cleveland 41 25.3, 31 Miami 24 19.0
60% 25 New York Jets 34 25.8, 27 Oakland 3 22.8
60% 19 Houston 20 25.9, 16 Indianapolis 17 22.4
60% 18 Buffalo 20 20.3, 17 Denver 3 17.9
60% 2 Baltimore 45 23.0, 11 Los Angeles Rams 6 19.8
40% 28 Washington 19 21.8, 23 Detroit 16 23.9
40% 24 Tampa Bay 35 28.1, 22 Atlanta 22 30.8
40% 12 Seattle 17 23.0, 8 Philadelphia 9 26.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 11 1.17 0 0.00 3 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 9.3 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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