2019 Week 16 (22-23 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   2 New England             24 24.9,    13 Buffalo                 17 12.1
 84%   1 Baltimore               31 32.7,    30 Cleveland               15 16.3
 79%  16 Denver                  27 27.5,    27 Detroit                 17 18.7
 73%   5 San Francisco           34 28.3,    17 Los Angeles Rams        31 18.9
 64%  21 Atlanta                 24 26.9,    26 Jacksonville            12 19.6
 62%  18 Indianapolis            38 28.9,    22 Carolina                 6 23.6
 60%  31 Miami                   38 23.9,    28 Cincinnati              35 21.5
 60%  14 Philadelphia            17 23.9,     9 Dallas                   9 21.7
 60%   3 New Orleans             38 23.5,    11 Tennessee               28 21.7
 52%   7 Kansas City             26 21.9,    12 Chicago                  3 21.7

 40%  25 New York Giants         41 20.8,    23 Washington              35 22.4
 40%  24 New York Jets           16 20.1,     8 Pittsburgh              10 23.6
 40%  20 Houston                 23 26.3,    19 Tampa Bay               20 30.9
 26%  15 Green Bay               23 19.7,     4 Minnesota               10 28.3
 16%  32 Oakland                 24 16.5,    10 Los Angeles Chargers    17 30.3
 16%  29 Arizona                 27 17.5,     6 Seattle                 13 32.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 1.94   8 1.03   3 0.89   4 0.60   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10  11.0 0.91

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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