prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 20 Houston 22 22.2, 13 Buffalo 19 19.8
40% 9 Seattle 17 23.4, 11 Philadelphia 9 25.5
37% 5 Minnesota 26 22.3, 3 New Orleans 20 28.0
24% 10 Tennessee 20 16.3, 2 New England 13 26.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 0.55 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 1 2.6 0.39
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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