2020 Week 4 (1-5 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 83%   4 Green Bay               30 39.6,    24 Atlanta                 16 23.7
 75%  12 Los Angeles Rams        17 33.7,    30 New York Giants          9 19.1
 68%  10 Tampa Bay               38 24.2,    15 Los Angeles Chargers    31 14.2
 66%   1 Kansas City             26 30.3,     8 New England             10 17.9
 65%   2 Baltimore               31 31.1,    29 Washington              17 17.9
 61%  20 Cincinnati              33 26.6,    28 Jacksonville            25 20.5
 61%  19 Denver                  37 29.1,    32 New York Jets           28 27.1
 61%  13 Buffalo                 30 37.4,    31 Las Vegas               23 28.2
 61%   7 Seattle                 31 28.4,    18 Miami                   23 24.2
 59%   5 Indianapolis            19 15.9,    11 Chicago                 11 14.2
 54%  16 Minnesota               31 33.6,    27 Houston                 23 32.5

 45%  26 Carolina                31 23.4,    17 Arizona                 21 24.4
 39%  21 New Orleans             35 29.8,    23 Detroit                 29 33.3
 34%  25 Cleveland               49 23.3,    14 Dallas                  38 33.1
 23%  22 Philadelphia            25 15.1,     3 San Francisco           20 30.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.19   9 1.23   2 0.66   1 1.20   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15  11   9.7 1.13

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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