prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Kansas City 35 38.2, 32 New York Jets 9 12.0
64% 17 Philadelphia 23 35.6, 29 Dallas 9 26.5
64% 4 Tampa Bay 25 29.9, 27 New York Giants 23 19.9
63% 6 Seattle 37 30.2, 9 San Francisco 27 23.2
60% 20 Buffalo 24 23.8, 14 New England 21 21.0
60% 16 Denver 31 25.6, 18 Los Angeles Chargers 30 22.1
60% 10 Miami 28 24.0, 11 Los Angeles Rams 17 20.3
56% 8 Indianapolis 41 23.5, 21 Detroit 21 22.8
40% 22 Atlanta 25 25.4, 23 Carolina 17 27.1
40% 15 New Orleans 26 21.8, 12 Chicago 23 24.4
39% 31 Las Vegas 16 33.5, 26 Cleveland 6 44.8
38% 24 Cincinnati 31 23.2, 7 Tennessee 20 30.1
37% 3 Pittsburgh 28 20.0, 2 Baltimore 24 26.4
28% 19 Minnesota 28 21.7, 5 Green Bay 22 31.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.79 11 0.89 1 0.00 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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