prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 21 Los Angeles Chargers 34 30.5, 32 New York Jets 28 19.5
76% 2 Pittsburgh 27 30.2, 30 Jacksonville 3 18.4
65% 9 Seattle 28 33.6, 17 Arizona 21 24.1
65% 6 New Orleans 24 33.5, 19 Atlanta 9 24.0
62% 3 Kansas City 35 41.9, 31 Las Vegas 31 29.0
60% 23 Carolina 20 28.1, 24 Detroit 0 26.0
60% 4 Indianapolis 34 25.7, 5 Green Bay 31 22.3
41% 28 Washington 20 22.7, 22 Cincinnati 9 23.8
40% 27 Cleveland 22 24.9, 18 Philadelphia 17 26.5
40% 26 Houston 27 23.0, 11 New England 20 24.8
40% 20 Denver 20 23.1, 8 Miami 13 26.3
37% 10 Los Angeles Rams 27 20.7, 7 Tampa Bay 24 27.1
29% 13 Tennessee 30 19.8, 1 Baltimore 24 30.1
28% 29 Dallas 31 22.0, 15 Minnesota 28 34.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 9 0.90 4 0.67 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.1 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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