prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 7 Green Bay 41 26.6, 12 Chicago 25 18.1
68% 15 Minnesota 28 27.5, 20 Carolina 27 20.3
64% 11 Miami 20 29.1, 32 New York Jets 3 19.3
61% 17 Buffalo 27 29.9, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 17 23.4
60% 21 Atlanta 43 41.9, 30 Las Vegas 6 31.3
60% 13 New England 20 25.1, 16 Arizona 17 21.7
60% 10 Seattle 23 30.4, 18 Philadelphia 17 28.1
60% 5 New Orleans 31 26.7, 19 Denver 3 23.1
60% 1 Pittsburgh 19 24.5, 2 Baltimore 14 20.6
53% 27 Cleveland 27 23.7, 31 Jacksonville 25 23.2
49% 3 Kansas City 27 26.9, 6 Tampa Bay 24 27.1
40% 24 New York Giants 19 22.1, 23 Cincinnati 17 25.8
39% 26 Houston 41 24.1, 28 Detroit 25 28.1
38% 25 Washington 41 22.0, 29 Dallas 16 26.9
38% 9 Tennessee 45 22.8, 4 Indianapolis 26 27.8
35% 14 San Francisco 23 19.1, 8 Los Angeles Rams 20 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.96 13 1.00 1 1.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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