2020 Week 16 (25-28 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   1 Baltimore               27 30.6,    24 New York Giants         13 14.2
 81%   2 Kansas City             17 32.0,    16 Atlanta                 14 20.0
 71%   3 New Orleans             52 30.8,    18 Minnesota               33 21.6
 64%   9 Chicago                 41 23.9,    31 Jacksonville            17 17.5
 62%   8 Seattle                 20 27.6,    12 Los Angeles Rams         9 21.3
 61%   6 Green Bay               40 30.0,    13 Tennessee               14 24.9
 60%  26 Los Angeles Chargers    19 27.2,    25 Denver                  16 24.2
 60%  21 Dallas                  37 28.1,    19 Philadelphia            17 24.6
 60%  14 Miami                   26 41.1,    32 Las Vegas               25 31.0
 60%  10 Tampa Bay               47 30.7,    29 Detroit                  7 25.0
 60%   4 Pittsburgh              28 25.1,     7 Indianapolis            24 21.5

 40%  30 New York Jets           23 20.9,    23 Cleveland               16 24.6
 40%  22 Carolina                20 19.4,    17 Washington              13 22.8
 40%  11 Buffalo                 38 20.6,     5 New England              9 22.5
 37%  27 Cincinnati              37 21.6,    28 Houston                 31 26.7
 36%  20 San Francisco           20 22.0,    15 Arizona                 12 28.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                0 0.00  13 1.01   1 1.41   2 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11  10.3 1.07

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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