prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 8 Indianapolis 28 34.7, 31 Jacksonville 14 16.4
75% 1 Baltimore 38 28.6, 27 Cincinnati 3 18.4
73% 11 New England 28 26.9, 30 New York Jets 14 13.2
67% 5 Tampa Bay 44 29.1, 15 Atlanta 27 20.2
66% 13 Los Angeles Rams 18 25.9, 16 Arizona 7 19.7
65% 4 New Orleans 33 28.7, 22 Carolina 7 22.9
61% 9 Buffalo 56 26.7, 12 Miami 26 21.0
60% 20 Minnesota 37 29.5, 29 Detroit 35 27.8
60% 14 Tennessee 41 29.9, 28 Houston 38 25.6
60% 7 Seattle 26 26.7, 17 San Francisco 23 24.8
55% 3 Green Bay 35 22.5, 10 Chicago 16 22.0
44% 23 New York Giants 23 23.0, 21 Dallas 19 23.9
40% 32 Las Vegas 32 30.3, 25 Denver 31 41.4
40% 24 Cleveland 24 21.2, 6 Pittsburgh 22 25.5
40% 18 Washington 20 19.2, 19 Philadelphia 14 23.4
24% 26 Los Angeles Chargers 38 18.2, 2 Kansas City 21 34.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 10 1.13 3 0.89 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.4 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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