prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 1 New England 21 30.4, 30 Miami 11 15.6
80% 2 Baltimore 38 31.2, 31 Cleveland 6 14.5
67% 14 Buffalo 27 23.6, 23 New York Jets 17 16.5
65% 5 Kansas City 34 29.1, 20 Houston 20 19.8
64% 3 New Orleans 34 30.5, 21 Tampa Bay 23 21.4
62% 9 Los Angeles Chargers 16 23.6, 29 Cincinnati 13 20.6
62% 8 Pittsburgh 26 22.9, 24 New York Giants 16 21.5
59% 6 Seattle 38 24.4, 18 Atlanta 25 23.2
57% 19 Los Angeles Rams 20 21.6, 7 Dallas 17 21.0
45% 25 Jacksonville 27 21.3, 16 Indianapolis 20 21.9
38% 32 Las Vegas 34 25.1, 22 Carolina 30 45.1
38% 27 Washington 27 19.8, 10 Philadelphia 17 23.2
38% 15 Chicago 27 20.2, 26 Detroit 23 21.4
38% 13 Tennessee 16 19.4, 17 Denver 14 22.1
35% 12 Green Bay 43 19.8, 4 Minnesota 34 26.1
33% 28 Arizona 24 18.1, 11 San Francisco 20 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.17 11 0.72 0 0.00 2 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.3 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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