10 Jan 2022: Average model rankings (NFL) for the 2021 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3   1 12.6  6.1 New England               17  4   0 11.3  5.2 Miami                   
  2  4   1 12.8  5.8 Buffalo                   18  3   0 10.8  5.2 Denver                  
  3  6   1 13.3  5.8 Tampa Bay                 19  3   0 11.6  5.1 Cincinnati              
  4  2   1 12.7  5.8 Kansas City               20  4   0 12.1  5.0 Minnesota               
  5  3   1 12.8  5.7 Green Bay                 21  3   0 10.7  5.1 Chicago                 
  6  3   1 12.8  5.6 Indianapolis              22  6   0 12.1  4.7 Los Angeles Chargers    
  7  6   1 12.4  5.6 Baltimore                 23  2   0 10.5  4.8 Washington              
  8  4   1 12.1  5.6 Seattle                   24  2   0 10.5  4.8 Carolina                
  9  4   1 12.0  5.6 New Orleans               25  4   0 10.7  4.7 Cleveland               
 10  6   1 12.3  5.5 Los Angeles Rams          26  5   0 10.7  4.6 Atlanta                 
 11  4   1 12.5  5.4 Dallas                    27  2   0 10.0  4.6 New York Giants         
 12  3   1 12.2  5.4 Tennessee                 28  1   0 10.4  4.2 Detroit                 
 13  7   0 12.1  5.4 Arizona                   29  4  -1 11.8  3.9 Las Vegas               
 14  3   0 11.9  5.4 San Francisco             30  1  -1 10.1  4.0 New York Jets           
 15  3   0 12.1  5.2 Philadelphia              31  1  -1  9.7  4.0 Houston                 
 16  6   0 11.6  5.2 Pittsburgh                32  1  -1  9.3  4.0 Jacksonville            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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