prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
64% 3 Arizona 34 30.3, 24 Minnesota 33 12.7
63% 10 Tampa Bay 48 40.0, 31 Atlanta 25 22.2
61% 25 Washington 30 28.2, 28 New York Giants 29 23.1
61% 8 Denver 23 26.6, 32 Jacksonville 13 18.9
61% 6 Los Angeles Rams 27 24.8, 19 Indianapolis 24 19.8
59% 27 Green Bay 35 40.1, 29 Detroit 17 35.9
58% 21 Cleveland 31 27.7, 14 Houston 21 25.9
54% 16 New England 25 23.9, 26 New York Jets 6 22.9
49% 23 Chicago 20 25.0, 13 Cincinnati 17 25.2
45% 17 Baltimore 36 30.1, 9 Kansas City 35 31.7
39% 22 Las Vegas 26 17.6, 5 Pittsburgh 17 30.2
39% 20 Dallas 20 22.8, 11 Los Angeles Chargers 17 28.5
39% 15 Carolina 26 6.9, 1 New Orleans 7 20.3
39% 12 San Francisco 17 11.0, 2 Philadelphia 11 20.8
38% 18 Buffalo 35 16.6, 7 Miami 0 26.2
36% 30 Tennessee 33 17.5, 4 Seattle 30 38.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.08 11 0.73 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.6 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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