2021 Week 4 (30 Sep - 4 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%  20 Cincinnati              24 30.5,    32 Jacksonville            21 17.6
 77%   4 Buffalo                 40 33.9,    30 Houston                  0 16.9
 61%  24 Chicago                 24 28.4,    29 Detroit                 14 23.0
 61%  19 Green Bay               27 27.2,    14 Pittsburgh              17 23.2
 61%  18 Los Angeles Chargers    28 29.9,    23 Las Vegas               14 26.0
 61%  12 Dallas                  36 20.7,     5 Carolina                28 17.8
 58%  11 Tampa Bay               19 27.1,    16 New England             17 24.8

 47%  22 Indianapolis            27 27.7,    26 Miami                   17 28.2
 43%   9 Kansas City             42 24.6,    10 Philadelphia            30 25.7
 40%  25 Washington              34 24.9,    27 Atlanta                 30 27.1
 39%  13 Cleveland               14 23.5,    17 Minnesota                7 25.9
 39%   8 Seattle                 28 23.1,    15 San Francisco           21 25.2
 39%   7 Baltimore               23 18.2,     6 Denver                   7 21.0
 39%   3 Arizona                 37 19.4,     2 Los Angeles Rams        20 23.8
 38%  31 New York Jets           27 20.5,    21 Tennessee               24 28.4
 17%  28 New York Giants         27 10.7,     1 New Orleans             21 31.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.60  10 0.66   1 1.29   2 0.60   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   7  10.2 0.69

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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