prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 16 Indianapolis 31 34.1, 31 Houston 3 20.1
65% 4 Baltimore 34 29.1, 18 Los Angeles Chargers 6 18.7
64% 6 Los Angeles Rams 38 27.7, 25 New York Giants 11 19.2
60% 12 Pittsburgh 23 23.7, 8 Seattle 20 22.6
60% 11 Kansas City 31 32.7, 24 Washington 13 27.7
60% 5 Tampa Bay 28 27.9, 21 Philadelphia 22 23.2
60% 3 Arizona 37 24.5, 13 Cleveland 14 21.5
51% 10 Green Bay 24 21.5, 17 Chicago 14 21.3
47% 23 Cincinnati 34 23.4, 28 Detroit 11 23.8
40% 32 Jacksonville 23 26.3, 26 Miami 20 28.8
40% 30 Las Vegas 34 22.7, 14 Denver 24 32.4
40% 19 Minnesota 34 20.8, 15 Carolina 28 23.5
40% 9 Dallas 35 22.0, 7 New England 29 23.8
39% 22 Tennessee 34 20.0, 1 Buffalo 31 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.22 10 0.82 0 0.00 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.6 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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