prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 8 Green Bay 24 32.2, 24 Washington 10 19.0
84% 5 Los Angeles Rams 28 35.5, 30 Detroit 19 16.4
84% 2 Arizona 31 37.5, 31 Houston 5 14.2
80% 6 Tampa Bay 38 27.1, 15 Chicago 3 15.5
74% 13 New England 54 26.7, 29 New York Jets 13 14.9
60% 22 Cleveland 17 22.7, 19 Denver 14 19.5
50% 4 New Orleans 13 24.0, 10 Seattle 10 23.9
47% 28 Las Vegas 33 31.2, 21 Philadelphia 22 32.3
45% 17 Tennessee 27 29.1, 7 Kansas City 3 30.1
40% 27 New York Giants 25 21.4, 20 Carolina 3 24.1
40% 26 Atlanta 30 24.7, 25 Miami 28 28.4
40% 12 Indianapolis 30 23.0, 18 San Francisco 18 24.6
16% 14 Cincinnati 41 15.4, 3 Baltimore 17 26.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.63 4 0.41 2 1.30 4 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 7 8.9 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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