prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 11 Seattle 31 33.4, 31 Jacksonville 7 16.9
83% 2 Buffalo 26 34.6, 27 Miami 11 16.4
77% 13 Kansas City 20 31.1, 24 New York Giants 17 19.1
73% 5 Los Angeles Rams 38 32.3, 32 Houston 22 17.5
66% 17 Denver 17 25.3, 26 Washington 10 17.7
60% 22 Philadelphia 44 27.8, 29 Detroit 6 25.3
58% 3 New Orleans 36 24.3, 4 Tampa Bay 27 23.0
55% 10 New England 27 23.6, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 24 22.8
49% 9 Pittsburgh 15 21.8, 19 Cleveland 10 22.0
44% 12 Dallas 20 27.2, 16 Minnesota 16 28.2
40% 23 Carolina 19 23.0, 25 Atlanta 13 25.9
40% 20 San Francisco 33 19.0, 18 Chicago 22 21.5
39% 14 Tennessee 34 21.8, 8 Indianapolis 31 26.2
37% 30 New York Jets 34 17.8, 15 Cincinnati 31 25.3
35% 7 Green Bay 24 19.4, 1 Arizona 21 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.90 7 0.46 2 1.34 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 9.7 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net