prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 10 Indianapolis 45 32.3, 29 New York Jets 30 15.7
82% 6 Baltimore 34 28.6, 17 Minnesota 31 19.1
77% 27 Miami 17 31.1, 32 Houston 9 21.8
70% 9 Pittsburgh 29 22.6, 20 Chicago 27 13.8
58% 2 Arizona 31 27.3, 19 San Francisco 17 22.3
56% 14 Kansas City 13 27.4, 7 Green Bay 7 25.5
56% 11 New England 24 23.2, 22 Carolina 6 20.9
55% 23 New York Giants 23 31.9, 28 Las Vegas 16 27.6
39% 21 Cleveland 41 20.4, 16 Cincinnati 16 25.1
37% 13 Tennessee 28 20.8, 5 Los Angeles Rams 16 28.6
36% 24 Los Angeles Chargers 27 21.5, 15 Philadelphia 24 27.6
25% 18 Denver 30 18.3, 12 Dallas 16 27.2
22% 30 Jacksonville 9 16.9, 1 Buffalo 6 32.3
16% 25 Atlanta 27 17.8, 3 New Orleans 25 31.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.77 4 0.39 3 0.44 3 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.6 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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