prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 13 Indianapolis 23 32.3, 29 Jacksonville 17 16.9
84% 11 Pittsburgh 16 33.5, 32 Detroit 16 17.1
70% 2 Buffalo 45 30.5, 30 New York Jets 17 17.5
64% 15 Dallas 43 31.8, 24 Atlanta 3 23.4
64% 7 New England 45 25.8, 20 Cleveland 7 18.2
60% 6 Green Bay 17 24.2, 9 Seattle 0 19.4
57% 12 Kansas City 41 36.1, 28 Las Vegas 14 30.0
55% 8 Tennessee 23 24.8, 4 New Orleans 21 23.5
46% 18 San Francisco 31 23.7, 10 Los Angeles Rams 10 25.1
45% 16 Minnesota 27 25.1, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 20 26.5
39% 17 Philadelphia 30 18.3, 14 Denver 13 23.2
35% 27 Washington 29 20.3, 3 Tampa Bay 19 31.7
33% 26 Miami 22 20.9, 5 Baltimore 10 27.8
20% 25 Carolina 34 14.4, 1 Arizona 10 32.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.90 6 0.79 1 1.43 3 0.40 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.2 0.76
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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